Here are some questions I’ve been asking myself in the past few weeks. I don’t have the answers to these, and a fair amount of analysis (and guesswork) will have to go into formulating answers.

• What happens if utility-scale energy storage declines from $thousands/kW (I’ve read of anything from $900-3000/kW from various battery manufacturers, all-in, including power electronics, installation costs, etc.) to $hundreds/kW? Could wind or solar PV actually become baseload power, competitive with coal or natural gas plants that run at 70-95%+ capacity utilization?

• What happens if the world could actually save 5% of power demand through energy efficiency? 10%? 20%? What impacts would that have on the generation side in terms of actual need for new power plants, i.e. how many fewer plants would we have to install?

• Is smart grid really worth it? Or is it just a fancy way of saying ‘grid improvements’ that enables utilities to pass on capex charges to ratepayers? What if all HVAC, lighting and appliances became 10% more efficient (new build + retrofits)? Would that obviate the need for trillion-dollar grid capex and the utopian vision of a two-way digital grid? In other words - if all my major sources of demand in buildings becomes efficient because equipment suppliers are all going there already - do we need to spend all this money doing slow, expensive grid improvements?

• There are around 1 billion cars in the world today, and virtually all of them run on liquid fuels. How many years would it take to transition all light vehicles over to EV/PHEV/hybrid, given aggressive government incentives/rebates/mileage standards? What’s the aggressive case (20 years? 30 years?), and how much would this translate to in actual savings in oil consumption?

• What would it take for lighting to be sold as a service, instead of as equipment? I.e. if the major lighting equipment suppliers sold lighting subscriptions instead of capital-intensive equipment? What about heating as a service, or cooling as a service? Let the equipment suppliers finance the installation capex (they generally have pretty big balance sheets and can get low cost of capital) instead of landlords.

• Is Jevons Paradox real? (see here for a description: https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Jevons_paradox ). If my air conditioner, lights and refrigerator get more efficient, will I be tempted to leave my lights on all the time and turn my thermostat down? Isn’t there some point where efficiency outstrips human laziness or greed?

OK, when I start talking about “Jevons Paradox” I know it’s time to stop asking questions…

If anyone has seen good, rigorous analysis on any of the above, I’d appreciate you pointing me to the relevant studies or reports.

Thanks!